Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
